SHFE Tin Fluctuates at Highs Awaiting US Fed Interest Rate Guidance, Market Logic Centered on "Supply-Side Constraints" [SMM Tin Midday Review]

At midday on 29 Oct 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2512 contract traded in a high-level consolidation range. By the midday close it had opened at 284,880 yuan/mt, reached a high of 287,390 yuan/mt and a low of 284,690 yuan/mt; trading was brisk with volume at 60,265 lots. The intraday pattern—“initial dip, then rebound, followed by narrow-range tug-of-war”—showed bulls and bears clashing fiercely around key levels. Meanwhile, LME tin futures proved relatively resilient; LME tin last settled at $36,200/mt, down $115 or 0.32% from the previous session on volume of 607 lots, while open interest edged up by 10,000 lots to 209.27 million lots.

The dominant market narrative centers on the dual tug-of-war between “hard supply constraints” and “structural demand shifts.” The macro front is locked in a wait-and-see stance shaped by multiple overlapping factors. The immediate focus is tonight’s US Fed rate decision, where the market assigns a >96% probability to a 25-bp cut; the prospect of easing underpins the metals complex. At the same time, renewed warmth in China-US trade talks has eased some demand worries, China’s 15th Five-Year Plan has ignited demand expectations, and these macro tailwinds have converged to drive metals higher. Yet heavy wait-and-see sentiment and long liquidation have capped upside, leaving today’s modest tin gains largely macro-driven. Near term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to move sideways between 285,000–287,500 yuan/mt, with LME tin resistance at $36,300/mt. If the Fed delivers the expected cut, a liquidity premium could push SHFE tin toward the 288,000 yuan mark; should Powell sound hawkish and traditional consumption remain soft, price may pull back to the 284,000 yuan support. The market is holding its breath for the Fed meeting’s guidance; under a tight supply-demand balance tin is locked in a strong sideways pattern—“a ceiling above, a floor below.”